Having cut rates at its June meeting to 2 per cent we think the European Central Bank is now likely to pause in July. With inflation on target in June the latest data offers little reason to think that trajectory has changed.

Euro-area inflation settled at the European Central Bank’s target in June, strengthening arguments to press pause on a year-long campaign of interest-rate cuts.

Euro zone inflation edged up last month to the European Central Bank's 2% target, confirming that the era of runaway prices is over and shifting policymaker focus to trade war-induced economic volatility.